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Case studies

Strategy Case Studies

Illustrative examples of systematic strategies developed and tested by AI Quant Forge. They are published to show the research process, implementation choices, results and limitations — not because they are our best-performing models and not as investment recommendations.

Case study · Backtest

Conventional Binomial MSM Forecast-Driven Volatility Targeting

MSM_FORECAST_VOLATILITY_TARGETINGJan 2020 – Jul 2024

The strategy holds SPY long with exposure scaled from a one-day-ahead binomial Markov-switching multifractal volatility forecast. It targets…

Sharpe 0.90Return 54.5%DD -20.2%
Case study · Backtest

Persistent Correlation-Eigenspace Reconfiguration SPY-to-Cash Risk Overlay

CORRELATION_GEOMETRY_VOLATILITY_OVERLAYJan 2020 – Jul 2024

A monthly risk overlay measures persistent rotation in the subdominant correlation eigenspace of a point-in-time large-cap stock universe. W…

Sharpe 0.73Return 68.2%DD -36.5%
Case study · Backtest

Regime-Adaptive Student-t GARCH Volatility Targeting for the NEPSE Index

REGIME_ADAPTIVE_GARCH_VOLATILITY_TARGETINGJan 2022 – Aug 2026

The strategy holds a long NEPSE Index exposure scaled to a 12% annualized volatility target using one-day Student-t GARCH or EGARCH forecast…

Sharpe 0.83Return 37.3%DD -11.4%
Case study · Backtest

Point-in-Time Triadic Network-Stress Defensive Overlay

TRIADIC_NETWORK_STRESS_DEFENSIVE_OVERLAYJan 2016 – Aug 2026

A point-in-time correlation-network indicator shifts a large-cap equity portfolio into a 75% MBB defensive allocation when systemic co-movem…

Sharpe 0.87Return 229.7%DD -46.7%
Case study · Backtest

Continuous Macro-Stress Smooth-Score Growth-vs-Defensive ETF Style Allocation

CONTINUOUS_MACRO_STRESS_STYLE_TIMINGJan 2020 – Oct 2025

Dynamically tilts a U.S. ETF portfolio between growth/technology and defensive/value-income baskets using a continuous macro-stress score bu…

Sharpe 0.92Return 111.2%DD -31.6%
Case study · Backtest

Covariance-Regret Dual Tilt Allocation on Liquid US Large-Cap Equities

COVARIANCE_REGRET_DUAL_TILT_ALLOCATIONJan 2020 – Oct 2025

Allocates weekly across 200 liquid US large-cap stocks using a minimum-variance anchor plus covariance-weighted recent-return tilts. The two…

Sharpe 0.79Return 94.7%DD -25.1%
Case study · Backtest

FEDFUNDS Low-Rate Gated Time-Series Momentum on Large-Cap US Stocks

MACRO_GATED_TIME_SERIES_MOMENTUMJan 2018 – Dec 2022

The strategy holds up to 20 liquid US stocks with positive multi-horizon time-series momentum and bullish moving-average trends, but only wh…

Sharpe 0.88Return 56.6%DD -15.1%
Case study · Backtest

Weekly-Daily Trend Alignment Momentum for US Large-Cap Stocks

MULTI_TIMEFRAME_TREND_MOMENTUMJan 2018 – Dec 2022

The strategy holds liquid US large-cap stocks only when completed-week and daily moving-average trends are simultaneously bullish. Positions…

Sharpe 0.72Return 32.5%DD -11.5%
Case study · Backtest

Hybrid Overnight Momentum with Intraday Extension Fade

HYBRID_OVERNIGHT_INTRADAYJan 2018 – Dec 2022

Each close, the strategy buys liquid stocks with persistent positive overnight returns and shorts stocks with weak overnight behavior after…

Sharpe 1.01Return 44.8%DD -10.5%
Case study · Backtest

Breadth-Aware Sector-Neutral Quality Momentum Long/Short Top 500 US Stocks

BREADTH_AWARE_QUALITY_MOMENTUM_LSJan 2018 – Dec 2022

Ranks top-500 US stocks within sectors on quality and risk-adjusted momentum, then buys high-quality winners and shorts low-quality laggards…

Sharpe 0.71Return 28.4%DD -21.3%
Case study · Backtest

Regime-Adaptive Relative Momentum on Top 100 Most Traded U.S. Stocks

REGIME_ADAPTIVE_RELATIVE_MOMENTUMJan 2020 – Oct 2025

Long-only regime-adaptive relative momentum strategy on the 100 most actively traded U.S. stocks. When SPY is in a positive, low-volatility…

Sharpe 1.08Return 46.4%DD -13.2%
Case study · Backtest

Time-Series Momentum w/ Trend Filter + Volatility/Drawdown Crash Protection (US Stocks)

TSM_TREND_CRASH_PROTECTEDJan 2020 – Oct 2025

Long-only weekly time-series momentum strategy on the 50 largest US stocks, selecting names with positive multi-horizon momentum, a 200-day…

Sharpe 0.73Return 65.5%DD -25.5%