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Case studies

Strategy Case Studies

Illustrative examples of systematic strategies developed and tested by AI Quant Forge. They are published to show the research process, implementation choices, results and limitations — not because they are our best-performing models and not as investment recommendations.

Case study · Backtest

Monthly δ-Stable Target versus Unrestricted Target in US-Stock Minimum-Variance Portfolios

NUMERICAL_RANK_STABLE_TARGET_MVOJan 2020 – Jul 2024

Each month, the strategy trades a capped, long-only minimum-variance portfolio targeting the cross-sectional mean estimated return. It also…

Sharpe 0.66Return 49.0%DD -31.1%
Case study · Backtest

SPY-Relative Drawdown-Targeted Constrained Kelly Overlay

BENCHMARK_RELATIVE_DRAWDOWN_TARGETED_KELLYJan 2020 – Jul 2024

Daily estimates a constrained Kelly allocation across SPY and GLD, then scales its active deviation from a 100% SPY benchmark to prescribed…

Sharpe 0.67Return 59.2%DD -35.9%
Case study · Backtest

Calibrated Ridge-Logistic VIX Stress Defensive SPY Allocation

CALIBRATED_VIX_STRESS_DEFENSIVE_ALLOCATIONJan 2020 – Jul 2024

A class-weighted ridge-logistic model estimates the probability of near-term VIX stress and continuously scales a long-only SPY allocation,…

Sharpe 0.89Return 22.5%DD -8.6%
Case study · Backtest

Monthly MNTS and ICA Tempered-Stable EVaR-Deviation Tail-Risk Parity

EVAR_DEVIATION_TEMPERED_STABLE_RISK_PARITYJan 2020 – Jul 2024

Each month, the strategy fits a multivariate normal tempered-stable model to 12 months of daily ETF returns and allocates capital so centere…

Sharpe 0.66Return 58.7%DD -22.3%
Case study · Backtest

Conventional Binomial MSM Forecast-Driven Volatility Targeting

MSM_FORECAST_VOLATILITY_TARGETINGJan 2020 – Jul 2024

The strategy holds SPY long with exposure scaled from a one-day-ahead binomial Markov-switching multifractal volatility forecast. It targets…

Sharpe 0.90Return 54.5%DD -20.2%
Case study · Backtest

Persistent Correlation-Eigenspace Reconfiguration SPY-to-Cash Risk Overlay

CORRELATION_GEOMETRY_VOLATILITY_OVERLAYJan 2020 – Jul 2024

A monthly risk overlay measures persistent rotation in the subdominant correlation eigenspace of a point-in-time large-cap stock universe. W…

Sharpe 0.73Return 68.2%DD -36.5%
Case study · Backtest

Regime-Adaptive Student-t GARCH Volatility Targeting for the NEPSE Index

REGIME_ADAPTIVE_GARCH_VOLATILITY_TARGETINGJan 2022 – Aug 2026

The strategy holds a long NEPSE Index exposure scaled to a 12% annualized volatility target using one-day Student-t GARCH or EGARCH forecast…

Sharpe 0.83Return 37.3%DD -11.4%
Case study · Backtest

Point-in-Time Triadic Network-Stress Defensive Overlay

TRIADIC_NETWORK_STRESS_DEFENSIVE_OVERLAYJan 2016 – Aug 2026

A point-in-time correlation-network indicator shifts a large-cap equity portfolio into a 75% MBB defensive allocation when systemic co-movem…

Sharpe 0.87Return 229.7%DD -46.7%
Case study · Backtest

Continuous Macro-Stress Smooth-Score Growth-vs-Defensive ETF Style Allocation

CONTINUOUS_MACRO_STRESS_STYLE_TIMINGJan 2020 – Oct 2025

Dynamically tilts a U.S. ETF portfolio between growth/technology and defensive/value-income baskets using a continuous macro-stress score bu…

Sharpe 0.92Return 111.2%DD -31.6%
Case study · Backtest

Covariance-Regret Dual Tilt Allocation on Liquid US Large-Cap Equities

COVARIANCE_REGRET_DUAL_TILT_ALLOCATIONJan 2020 – Oct 2025

Allocates weekly across 200 liquid US large-cap stocks using a minimum-variance anchor plus covariance-weighted recent-return tilts. The two…

Sharpe 0.79Return 94.7%DD -25.1%
Case study · Backtest

FEDFUNDS Low-Rate Gated Time-Series Momentum on Large-Cap US Stocks

MACRO_GATED_TIME_SERIES_MOMENTUMJan 2018 – Dec 2022

Buys up to 20 liquid US stocks with strong absolute momentum when FEDFUNDS is at or below 1%. Exits positions when momentum weakens, price b…

Sharpe 0.88Return 56.5%DD -15.1%
Case study · Backtest

Weekly-Daily Trend Alignment Momentum for US Large-Cap Stocks

MULTI_TIMEFRAME_TREND_MOMENTUMJan 2018 – Dec 2022

A long-only US equity strategy enters liquid stocks when completed-week and daily moving-average trends are jointly bullish. Positions are A…

Sharpe 0.86Return 39.0%DD -10.7%